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Tax Justice in Wales: Assessing the 2026 Assembly Manifestos

How Welsh Assembly election manifestos line up against our five day‑one tax justice recommendations, to deliver local and national change?

The Welsh election is in full swing, with a potential political earthquake on the horizon in May. Recent opinion polls suggest Plaid Cymru is heading for victory. If that victory materialises it will be the first time anyone other than Labour has won in Wales since the collapse of the Liberals after World War One.

But what does the election mean for tax justice? Well, potentially a lot. The Welsh Assembly (or Senedd Cymru) has some, limited powers to set taxation policy, and the signals sent by the election will no doubt reach Westminster too.

Ahead of the election, we sent out our policy recommendations for delivering tax justice to all the parties standing in Wales. As well as supporting UK-wide policies such as a wealth tax, and an end to tax haven secrecy, we made 5 recommendations for policies within the Welsh assembly’s power to deliver on day one (see summary below table). So, who adopted our recommendations, and how do their manifesto promises stack up in terms of delivering on tax justice?

Welsh Manifesto Rating
Methodology note: policies are scored from 0 (no commitment), 1 (positive step but not fully aligned), 2 (very positive step) or 3 (full alignment/share approach with TJUK policies). All parties will be evaluated as/when their manifestos are released. When a proposed policy runs counter to TJUK’s goal of a fairer tax system where the wealthiest pay their fair share and would actually make things worse (such as tax cuts for the wealthiest) we have given negative scores.

  1. Make sure the richest pay the highest council tax → Reform Council Tax Make property tax proportional so people in cheaper homes pay less while owners of high‑value properties finally pay their fair share.

  2. Make wealthier second‑home buyers pay more → Rebalance Land Transaction Tax Charge much higher rates on second homes, speculative investments and holiday lets so wealthy buyers stop pricing out local people.

  3. Stop penalising small local businesses → Reform Business Rates Stop penalising small high‑street businesses while big multinationals pay less; create a fairer, more predictable system.

  4. End unproductive land hoarding → Introduce a Vacant Land Tax Tax landowners who sit on unused land with planning permission, pushing them to build or sell instead of hoarding.

  5. Crack down on super-rich tax dodging → Resource WRA & HMRC properly Give tax authorities the staff and tools to close the tax gap and ensure the super‑rich actually pay what they owe.

LABOUR

On tax justice issues, Labour has a good record in Wales having legislated for council tax revaluation— an essential step to reforming our broken property taxes. Mark Drakeford, who isn’t standing, will be missed by many advocates for tax justice. Labour have pledged to freeze Income Tax, make Council Tax fairer for everyone, introduce a Vacant Land Tax to tackle land banking by developers and introduce a root and branch review of Business Rates to make them fairer. However they have failed to make commitments to enhancing tax compliance funding, or tackling the imbalance of transaction taxes on homes vs. second-homes and investment properties.

CONSERVATIVES & REFORM

The Conservative and Reform manifestos are very similar and were published some time ago— this author hears rumours that the Conservative staffers who wrote it defected to Reform as it was being finalised— promising income tax cuts, limits on council tax rises and public spending cuts. The IFS has judged their plans as not credible. 

However the Conservatives have also promised to abolish the Land Transaction Tax (Wales’s version of Stamp Duty) on main residencies. Whilst the Land Transaction Tax is an economically inefficient tax so its replacement is desirable, this approach in practice would be a tax cut for the richest half of society. More comprehensive reform, ensuring the wealthiest pay the most, is essential. 

GREENS

The Welsh Greens manifesto contains some great proposals that will substantially improve the lives of people in Wales, and promote economic growth, in line with many of our reccomendations. This includes replacing Council Tax and Business Rates with a Land Value Tax paid by landowners, the introduction of a Vacant Land Tax and resourcing the Welsh Revenue Authority to collect the right amount of tax. They also call for the UK to introduce polluter pays principle taxes on luxury goods and highly polluting industries, an essential step in tackling the climate crisis.  

PLAID CYMRU

Plaid Cymru are yet to release their official manifesto for the Welsh elections. When they do we will assess and rank it here. 

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

The Liberal Democrats are yet to release their official manifesto for the Welsh elections.When they do we will assess and rank it here.